Economist sees PH Q3 growth at 6% to 6.5%

An economist has projected that the Philippine economy likely grew within the 6.0% to 6.5% range in the third quarter of 2024, driven by seasonal factors and increased spending. This forecast comes ahead of the official release of the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data by the Philippine Statistics Authority in early November.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation, attributed the expected growth to the rise in importation, manufacturing, and other production activities in preparation for the holiday season's higher demand. "Increased infrastructure spending would also contribute to economic growth in view of election-related spending in preparation for the May 2025 elections," Ricafort explained.

The Philippine economy had already shown robust performance, with a 6.3% growth recorded in the second quarter of the year. The ongoing infrastructure projects and heightened production activities are expected to sustain this momentum, potentially pushing growth closer to the upper limit of the forecast range.

However, Ricafort noted potential risks that could temper this growth, including weather disruptions caused by storms and the anticipated La Niña phenomenon, which might affect business operations and other economic activities.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has set a 6% to 7% economic growth target for 2024. With the latest inflation data showing a decline to a four-year low of 1.9% in September, DBCC Chair and Department of Budget and Management Secretary Amenah Pangandaman suggested the possibility of revising the growth target upwards.

The upcoming GDP data release will provide a clearer picture of the economy's performance, but economists remain optimistic about the country's growth trajectory as the year draws to a close.