Investors eye bargains, await US inflation data for policy cues

Philippine stocks are expected to remain influenced by bargain-hunting and global market signals this week as investors await key US inflation data and anticipate monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi), which slipped to a near five-month low of 6,082.93 last Wednesday, recovered to close at 6,149.13 by the week’s end, lifted by optimism from Wall Street and Asian peers. The benchmark was still down 0.10 percent week-on-week and 5.82 percent lower year-to-date.

Unicapital Group analyst Peter Garnace said the market would likely take its cue from the upcoming US jobs and consumer price index (CPI) reports, both considered critical indicators for the Fed’s policy meeting on September 16–17. Data released last Friday showed weaker-than-expected US job creation, fueling expectations of a rate cut. Inflation figures for August are due September 11.

On the domestic side, analysts noted that investors are also monitoring the government’s probe into corruption in infrastructure projects for potential economic implications. Meanwhile, expectations of Fed easing have strengthened, with projections of rates moving closer to 3 percent from the current 4.25–4.5 percent range.

Philippine inflation rose to 1.5 percent in August due to weather-related food price spikes but remained within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ forecast range. Core inflation trends were seen as supportive of a more measured pace of monetary adjustments.

Brokerage 2TradeAsia.com highlighted that despite positive macro conditions, the PSEi continues to trade below historical averages and behind regional peers, creating opportunities for investors. It cited financials and infrastructure as sectors likely to benefit from easing, while recommending rotation into quality names on pullbacks for protection.

Analysts said seasonal consumer spending, declining global capital costs, and ongoing infrastructure programs could provide further catalysts for local equities as the year progresses.