PH may attain upper-middle income status by 2026 – NEDA

The Philippines is on track to becoming an upper-middle income country by 2026 if it maintains strong economic growth of at least 6 percent annually, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

At a press conference, NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan acknowledged that while the transition remains challenging, the government remains optimistic that the country can achieve the milestone next year.

“I think the upper-middle income status is challenging. But I think if we get 6 percent [growth] this year, 6 percent next year, we should achieve that status next year,” Balisacan told reporters.

The Marcos administration has long targeted the country’s transition to the upper-middle income bracket by late 2025 or early 2026, aligning with national development goals.

To qualify for upper-middle income status, a country must post a gross national income (GNI) per capita between USD 4,516 and USD 14,005. In 2023, the Philippines recorded a GNI per capita of USD 4,230—still below the threshold, but the highest the country has ever achieved.

The World Bank, which classifies countries based on their GNI per capita using the Atlas method, updates its income brackets annually. If the Philippines surpasses the threshold in 2024, it will likely be officially reclassified by July 2025.

Currently, neighboring countries Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia are already in the upper-middle income group, while Singapore and Brunei belong to the high-income category.

Despite the anticipated prestige that comes with the new classification, Balisacan noted that there are trade-offs. Becoming an upper-middle income country could mean the Philippines will lose access to certain concessional loans and preferential trade treatments extended to lower-income nations.

Nevertheless, the NEDA chief emphasized that while GNI is an important benchmark, the focus should remain on more meaningful development metrics such as poverty reduction, employment quality, and literacy rates.

“It [GNI] is a useful measure; it’s a broad measure. But unfortunately, it cannot capture everything, especially those things that really matter for the well-being of the country’s citizens,” Balisacan added.

The government continues to pursue structural reforms, infrastructure development, and social programs that aim to uplift overall living standards—key components needed to ensure that economic growth translates into inclusive progress.