PH economy set for 6%  growth amid resilience and reforms

The Philippine economy is set to remain one of the fastest-growing in the region, with a projected growth rate exceeding 6% for the years 2024 and 2025.

According to an economic outlook report from BPI Senior Vice President and Lead Economist Emilio Neri Jr., growth is expected to reach 6.1% in 2024 and rise to 6.3% in 2025. Neri attributed this resilience to the country’s robust consumer base, which has sustained growth despite challenges like El Niño and severe typhoons.

“The Philippine economy has proven its resilience in the face of significant headwinds, still managing to achieve 6% growth in the first half of 2024,” Neri stated. He highlighted that manageable inflation, along with increased food production and reduced tariffs, is anticipated to boost consumption and economic activity.

Neri forecasted headline inflation to decline to 3.2% in 2024 and further down to 2.8% in 2025. He pointed out that the easing of inflation will likely be driven by improved food supply and stabilized rice prices following El Niño's departure. Additionally, Neri believes election-related spending could further support growth.

IMF Sees Continued Robust Growth

In a separate analysis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected the Philippines to maintain a growth trajectory of over 6%, potentially reaching 6.3% in 2029. This forecast places the country among the fastest-growing economies in emerging and developing Asia, behind Bhutan (7.2%) and tied with Bangladesh and India at 6.5%.

The IMF maintained its growth outlook for the Philippines at 5.8% for 2024 and 6.1% for 2025, citing the anticipated pickup in domestic demand, gradual monetary easing, and increased public investments as key factors. The IMF report also highlighted potential risks to growth, such as geopolitical tensions, volatile commodity prices, and slower-than-expected private investment growth.

The IMF noted that medium-term growth, projected at 6.3%, would be driven by continued investments, particularly through public-private partnerships and foreign direct investments.

While risks remain, the IMF and domestic analysts express optimism in the Philippines’ capacity to sustain growth and address challenges, positioning the country as a regional leader in economic resilience and expansion.