PH growth forecast stays at 5.3% – World Bank

The World Bank has maintained its 2025 growth forecast for the Philippines at 5.3%, citing persistent policy uncertainties and weakening investor and consumer confidence that continue to drag economic activity across the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region.

In its June 2025 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, the Washington-based institution emphasized the continued headwinds affecting emerging markets, particularly the Philippines, where growth is expected to remain below six percent until at least 2027.

“The direct effects of higher trade barriers and the indirect effects of heightened policy uncertainty, a weaker global growth outlook, and softer confidence weigh on investment, exports, and consumption in the region,” the report noted.

This places the Philippines alongside other EAP economies, which are projected to experience a slowdown to 4.5% growth in 2025, from 5% in 2024. The World Bank reiterated that EAP countries, including the Philippines, remain highly vulnerable to global trade and policy fluctuations due to their openness and reliance on international markets.

While the Philippine government has set a more ambitious target of 6–8% economic growth over the next two years, the World Bank’s more conservative outlook signals tempered expectations. The institution sees GDP growth gradually climbing to 5.9% by 2031, still shy of government goals.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Philippine economy expanded by 5.4%, slightly up from the previous quarter’s 5.3% but down from 5.7% in the same period last year. Despite falling short of its official 6% target, the government highlighted that the growth rate still placed the country among the fastest-growing economies in Asia—tied with China and behind Vietnam.

According to the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework, modest growth trends are expected to continue, with GDP projected to reach 5.7% in 2028 and up to 5.9% by 2031.

The global lender’s cautious stance underscores the need for continued policy clarity, strengthened investor confidence, and structural reforms to boost the Philippines’ economic momentum in the medium to long term.