Economist projects March inflation to ease below 2%

Inflation in the Philippines is expected to decelerate further and fall below 2 percent in March, driven by favorable weather conditions and measures to boost agricultural supply, according to Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) chief economist Michael Ricafort.

In a message to the Philippine News Agency on Friday, Ricafort forecasted March inflation to settle at 1.9 percent, down from 2.1 percent in February and below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target range of 2 to 4 percent.

"Better weather conditions in most parts of the country so far in March, especially in northern Philippines, with some rains due to La Niña, could help increase agricultural production and improve local supply," Ricafort said.

He noted that while meat prices have remained relatively elevated, they are expected to be tempered by higher pork imports and the government’s imposition of a maximum suggested retail price on pork starting March 10.

In addition, the implementation of the maximum suggested retail price on imported rice last January and the declaration of a food security emergency in early February, coupled with declining global rice prices, are likely to ease pressures on rice costs — a key component of the country’s inflation basket.

Ricafort also cited the stronger peso, with the exchange rate improving to 57.20 from 57.99 in February, contributing to reduced import costs. Lower global crude oil prices are another factor expected to help curb inflation.

With inflation remaining comfortably within the BSP’s target range, Ricafort said this opens up room for potential interest rate cuts to further support the economy.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release the official March 2025 inflation data on April 4.